[Freemanlist2] Yoram Ettinger-Israel has no Demographic Time Bomb; It's a Demographic Scarecrow Bomb

Freeman Center For Strategic Studies bernards at sbcglobal.net
Fri May 21 07:16:39 CDT 2010







FREEMAN CENTER BROADCAST- May 21, 2010 
For Zion's sake will I not hold my peace 
and for Jerusalem's sake I will not rest." Isaiah 62.
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They deem him their worst enemy who tells them the truth. - Plato 



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SHABBAT SHALOM!
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No Demographic Time Bomb; It's a Demographic Scarecrow Bomb 
The Australian Jewish News, May 14, 2010 
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger 
“Second Thought: A US-Israel Initiative” 
  
Anyone suggesting that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean is either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.  
In contrast with conventional “wisdom,” there is a Jewish majority of 67% in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel and Judea & Samaria and a 60% majority west of the Jordan River (including Gaza), compared with a 33% and a 8% Jewish minority in 1947 and in 1900 respectively. 
 
The robust Jewish demographic tailwind and Arab demographic headwind are demonstrated through the absolute annual number of Jewish and Arab births in pre-1967 Israel.  While the annual number of Arab births stabilized at 39,000 during 1995-2009, the annual number of Jewish births surged by 50% from 80,400 in 1995 to 121,000 in 2009. 
 
The number of Judea & Samaria Arabs is artificially inflated by 66%.  It is 1.55MN and not 2.5MN.  Thus, the World Bank documents a 32% “inflation” in the number of Palestinian births, a substantial erosion of the Palestinian fertility rate and a significant escalation of Arab emigration from Judea, Samaria and Gaza.  Documented entries and exits via international passages feature a 20,000 net Arab emigration from Judea & Samaria in 2009, 17,000 and 14,000 in 2008 and 2007 respectively and only six years of net-immigration since 1950. 
  
The significant decline in Arab population growth rate has been caused by an intensive family planning campaign, an unprecedented reduction of teen-pregnancy, a swift urbanization process, an all-time-high divorce rate and median wedding-age, an impressive expansion of education especially among women and enhanced career mentality among women.  
  
In contrast with international demographic standards, the Palestinians include some 400,000 overseas residents in their census. They also include 250,000 Jerusalem Arabs, who bear Israeli I.D. cards and are therefore doubly-counted: as Israeli Arabs by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics and as West Bank Arabs by the Palestinians. 
  
Demographic doom’s day projections have been refuted drastically and systematically since the launching of the Zionist voyage by Theodore Herzl.  The founders of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics and their successors have underestimated Jewish fertility, overestimated Arab fertility, ignored Arab emigration and downplayed Aliya prospects. In the 1940s, they projected 2.3MN Jews in the Land of Israel in 2001. They were off by 3.5MN Jews! They dismissed Ben Gurion’s assessments of one million Olim in the 1950s and ridiculed the suggestion that an additional million Olim would arrive from the USSR during the 1990s. 
 
In 2010, there is a demographic problem, but there is no demographic machete at Israel's throat.  Most importantly, the demographic tailwind is Jewish, not Arab.  Refuted demographic fatalism should be replaced with well-documented optimism, thus expanding security, political, strategic, diplomatic and economic options for Israel. 

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THERE IS NO MAGIC CURE FOR CONFLICT
OBAMA THINKS THERE IS, IF YOU SACRIFICE ISRAEL
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ISRAELIS MUST BE PREPARED FOR A CONTINUOUS BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL
WE CAN NOT RESIGN FROM THIS STRUGGLE
WE CAN NOT DEPEND ON ANY OTHER NATION
THIS IS OUR BATTLE - AND WE MUST FIGHT IT ALONE
WE WILL WIN BECAUSE OF OUR MIGHT AND RIGHTEOUSNESS
AND THE ALMIGHTY WILL BE BY OUR SIDE 
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MAY ISRAEL AVOID PREEMPTIVE SURRENDER IN 2010
By Not Agreeing To Self-Destruction as per Orders from the US and the Left.
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 Orwell's Newspeak In The Middle East

Peace Process = Piece of Israel For Piece of Paper
Zionist Left (Labor, Kadima & Meretz) = Arab Nationalism Not Zionism
Self-Defense = Restraint = Israeli Deaths to Save Arab Lives
Transfer = Transfer Jews Not Arabs
American Aid = Does Not Aid Israel = American Control of Israel
Jewish Power NOT Jewish Weakness
Israeli Leadership = Chelmite Leadership = No Leadership
ISLAM IS NOT A RELIGION OF PEACE AND LOVE
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[Freeman Center Note: Considering the Jewish historical experience with weakness, ALL Jews (and, of course, Israelis) should be armed and able to defend themselves. Any attempt by the government to disarm Jews should be resisted by force. Better to die a free man than to live as a slave. Any attempt by the U.S, Europe or the UN to limit Israeli military freedom of action should be prevented!]
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HASHEM HELPS THOSE WHO HELP THEMSELVES.
PLEASE DON'T WAIT FOR A MIRACLE -
BE THE MIRACLE!!

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THE TRUTH MAY NOT ALWAYS BE POPULAR, 
BUT IT IS STILL THE TRUTH.

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