[Freemanlist2] Dr. Aaron Lerner Commentary: Exploiting the window before Iran may get the bomb

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Fri Feb 2 10:09:43 CST 2007


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Weekly Commentary:  Exploiting the window before Iran may get the bomb

Dr. Aaron Lerner                   Date: 1 February, 2007

One certainly hopes that the nightmare of a nuclear Iran never comes to be. 
But it would be irresponsible not to prepare for that terrible possibility.

Some have suggested that Israel rush to "resolve" its differences with the 
Palestinians and Syria to reduce the chances that the Jewish State finds 
itself threatened by Iran with a nuclear response in their support.

But there is a reason for putting the term "resolve" in quotation marks.

That's because a quick fix creating a terror Palestinian state and a hand 
over of the Golan Heights that would dramatically reduce the risk taking 
Israel could afford to take in the case of suspicious Syrian moves could 
readily increase rather than reduce the dangerous possibility of an incident 
that leads to Iranian intervention.

What, then, could help to reduce the possibility of Iranian - or for that 
matter other malicious third party - intervention?

Rapid conflict incident resolution.

Simply put, a conflict incident that goes on for many days or even weeks can 
heat up the Iranian and Arab street with rallies, pronouncements and threats 
of intervention.

In sharp contrast, a conflict incident resolved in a short period is 
considerably less likely to suck others in - even if resolution means 
numerous casualties.

Creating a situation on the ground that is amenable to rapid conflict 
incident resolution goes beyond military training and equipment.

It means developing a workable and effective approach to the human shields 
challenge.

It means exploiting an appreciation of the nature of media coverage of 
conflicts (brutally put - the bad press for bloody battles in five civilian 
areas that take place simultaneously is almost the same as the bad press for 
one battle).

It also means restoring a military presence in the Gaza Strip to facilitate 
the intelligence gathering so critical for rapid conflict incident 
resolution.

Today the Olmert team is doing the opposite as it stands by permitting the 
Palestinians to invest millions of dollars in a network of battle tunnels in 
the Gaza Strip as they amass huge quantities of both smuggled and openly 
trucked in weapons.

Yes. Today the Palestinians are aiming some of these weapons against each 
other, but it is only a question of time before they embrace Egypt's 
proposal to unite for the common cause.

If there is one silver lining in the mess, the appointment of a man from 
Golani as IDF Chief of Staff could make it just that more possible to reach 
the goal of rapid conflict incident resolution before a nuclear Iran may 
arrive on the scene.

Dr. Aaron Lerner, Director IMRA (Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(Mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-7604719/Fax 972-3-7255730
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra at netvision.net.il
Website: http://www.imra.org.il
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